After crisis scenarios for Europe: alternative evolutions of structural adjustments

Abstract

Structural adjustment in the European Union emerged as the result of the 7-year crisis, providing risks and opportunities to national and regional economies. The effects that these structural changes will generate are difficult to be foreseen. This article builds after-crisis scenarios for Europe on the basis of alternative evolutions of these structural changes. On the basis of a regional forecasting model (MASST3), the article presents two opposite scenarios: the ‘place-based’ competitiveness’ and the ‘social cohesion’ one. Results unexpectedly show that the place-based competitiveness scenario achieves both the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rates and the lowest increase in regional disparities.