Abstract
Wind conditions are well-known to affect results of ski jumping competitions. To alleviate effects of different head or tail winds and differences in inrun length due to jury or coaches’ decisions, the FIS (Féderation Internationale de Ski) has adopted a wind and gate compensation system since January 2010. However, the accuracy and fairness of the resulting compensation points are often questioned by athletes, spectators, and media commentators alike but have not yet been thoroughly investigated. In the present meta-analysis, we present evidence for systematic negative associations of wind points but positive associations of gate points with round scores across all World Cup and World Championship competitions of men in the ski jumping seasons 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 (k = 35 and 30, respectively). Moreover, our results indicate that absolute correlations between wind points and round scores increased in presence of larger wind point variability, thus indicating lower accuracy of compensation systems when conditions are more variable. Additionally, there was a trend for larger wind point malcompensations on larger jumping hills. Our results suggest that the current wind point compensation formula as well as gate factors should be reevaluated to prevent systematically biased point awards within and across competitions.
Highlights
Differing weather and wind conditions are well-known to exert meaningful and potentially competition-distorting influences on the results of ski jumping [1]. It is assumed, that head winds lead to longer jumps and higher points, whilst tail winds lead to shorter jumps and lower points
Results of isolated important events such as the Olympics, the World Championship, or the Four Hills Tournament rely on the results of only two rounds of jumps within one or only few competitions and may be substantially influenced by weather conditions
Our examination of influences of wind point variability on observed effect sizes showed substantial influences of wind point variability on the round score and wind points association. These results indicate that wind points appear to yield fair compensations in competitions where wind conditions are comparable across jumps, whilst unstable weather conditions lead to increasingly unreliable point compensations
Summary
Differing weather and wind conditions are well-known to exert meaningful and potentially competition-distorting influences on the results of ski jumping [1]. It is assumed, that head winds lead to longer jumps and higher points, whilst tail winds lead to shorter jumps and lower points. It has been argued that weather conditions influence individual competition results, results of entire World Cup seasons should be comparatively little affected because differing conditions should even. Results of isolated important events such as the Olympics, the World Championship, or the Four Hills Tournament rely on the results of only two rounds of jumps within one or only few competitions and may be substantially influenced by weather conditions
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