AFTA and Trade Diversion: An Empirical Study for Vietnam and Singapore

Abstract

This paper analyses and compares the economic effects of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) on the trade flows of Vietnam and Singapore. Using the gravity model, the study shows a number of robust empirical findings. First, on the multilateral trade flows of Vietnam and Singapore, the model reveals no trade diversion following integration. Second, trade flows are not significantly affected immediately following the signing of the AFTA agreement. Third, trade distance still remains a hindrance to trade, indicating that globalization and integration have not mitigated the relevance of physical distance even though technological innovations continue to reduce transportation costs. Fourth, cultural familiarity, as a proxy for linguistic affinity and colonial relationship, continues to be an important determinant of bilateral trade flows. Finally, differences in per capita income among trading partners continue to have negative impacts on bilateral trade. Efforts to narrow the GDP gaps among members, improving social infrastructure, and continued domestic reforms are suggested as remedies for the obstacles to freerflows of trade in the region.