African swine fever outbreaks in China led to gross domestic product and economic losses.

Shibing You,Tingyi Liu,Xue Zhao,Baofeng Shi,Miao Zhang,Xinjie Wei,Yizhe Dong,Bi Wu,Juan Li,Yanzhen Wang

doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00362-1

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China-the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. Here we use an input-output model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China's gross domestic product in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate that the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in gross domestic product, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.

Highlights

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China—the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork
Only examining the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus allows us to focus on the impact of the ASF epidemic, and our findings will help further studies to disentangle the economic impacts of these two overlapping epidemics
We develop an economic loss assessment framework of animal epidemics that integrates a substitution indicator estimation, an input–output model and partial equilibrium theory

Summary

Introduction

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China—the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. Scenario analyses demonstrate that the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in gross domestic product, respectively These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines. Since the onset of the latest outbreak, huge efforts have been made to prevent and control the rapid spread of the disease, including a strict stamping-out policy that involves delineating quarantine zones for infected areas and the rigorous culling of infected herds[7,8,9] These measures inevitably cause large economic losses and affect many people and related industries[10,11]. Our findings can help Chinese policymakers to better understand the financial losses of the ASF epidemic and evaluate the effectiveness of related policies, and provide a scientific decision-making reference for countries affected by animal diseases, to help them formulate tailored epidemic prevention and control measures, and livelihood and food safety policies

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