Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Lithuania since 2014. It is mainly the wild boar population that is affected. Currently, little is known about the epidemiological course of ASF in Lithuania. In the present study, ASF surveillance data from 2016–2021 were analyzed. The numbers of samples taken from hunted wild boar and wild boar found dead per year and month were recorded and the prevalence was estimated for each study month and administrative unit. A Bayesian space–time model was used to calculate the temporal trend of the prevalence estimates. In addition, population data were analyzed on a yearly basis. Most samples were investigated in 2016 and 2017 and originated from hunted animals. Prevalence estimates of ASF virus-positive wild boar decreased from May 2019 onwards. Seroprevalence estimates showed a slight decrease at the same time, but they increased again at the end of the study period. A significant decrease in the population density was observed over time. The results of the study show that ASF is still present in the Lithuanian wild boar population. A joint interdisciplinary effort is needed to identify weaknesses in the control of ASF in Lithuania and to combat the disease more successfully.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) was first identified in 1921 [1]
Lithuanian ASF wild boar surveillance data were obtained from the CSF/ASF wild boar surveillance database of the European Union [32]
ASF virus (ASFV) prevalence estimates were calculated for hunted wild boar and for wild boar found dead separately
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) was first identified in 1921 [1]. In the following decades, it mainly affected the African continent, but after the first introduction into Portugal in 1957, several countries in Europe experienced outbreaks caused by ASF virus genotype I [2]. Hunting was intensified and incentives were paid for targeted hunting of adult and sub-adult females, for reporting wild boar found dead and for disposing the carcasses safely by burial Despite these control measures, the disease is still present in the wild boar population and has spread throughout the country [9]. The number of hunted wild boar that tested positive for ASFV-specific antibodies, but negative for ASFV, has increased [24,26,27,28] This course of disease may result from an accumulation of surviving animals and the simultaneous absence of new infections [27,28]. By including the most recent data and advanced analyses, we aimed at complementing and completing existing research results
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