Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Cross-country econometric analysis informed by Heckscher-Ohlin theory suggests that the concentration of Africa's exports on unprocessed primary products is caused largely by the region's combination of low levels of education and abundant natural resources. One-third of the countries in Africa have considerable potential to export manufactures, much of it unrealised at present, but even in the future, with more education, improved infrastructure and better policies, the share of manufactures in exports will remain far lower in Africa than in Asia, which has fewer natural resources. The way forward for Africa in the medium term lies mainly in raising the level of its primary exports, processed and unprocessed, following a long-term development path more like that of natural-resource-abundant America than that of natural-resource-scarce Asia.