Abstract
Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in agricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and wheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a modelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes with a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and predictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in Europe, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the next years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent human and animal exposure.
Highlights
Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide[1,2,3,4].The expected impact of climate change on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern
The possible change in patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in food and feed crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may require anticipatory actions
Two climate change scenarios, +2 °C and +5 °C above pre-industrial levels, which take into account whether or not mitigation strategies for climate change are applied, in addition to the present scenario, were considered
Summary
Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and its expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide[1,2,3,4].The expected impact of climate change on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern These fungal metabolites are important causes of chronic toxicity from exposure via food[5,6]; in particular, aflatoxins, which have the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins[7]. Related health problems are difficult to diagnose, mainly due to cryptic, long-term and chronic www.nature.com/scientificreports/
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