Afforestation of rural land in greece: a multinomial logistic regression analysis of driving factors

Abstract

This article deals with the importance of European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development through the implementation of afforestation schemes in rural communities. The main aim of the article is to investigate the spatial patterns of afforestation in Greece, the driving factors behind these patterns as well as the degree of the success of the EU policy for forest expansion through afforestation of arable land. Therefore, the focus is on providing a concrete appraisal regarding the contribution of EU 2080/92 and 1257/99 Regulations to the improvement of regional forest status by means of increasing forest areas and improving the local people's standard of living. The study area covers the entire Greek territory which consists of 51 administrative prefectures. Methodologically speaking, the empirical analysis is based on a multinomial logistic regression model targeted at providing a thorough understanding of the major driving factors that influence rural communities' response to the regulations. The environmental importance of arable land afforestation is highlighted as well as the extent to which the regulations has met the initial expectations. Keywords: afforestation, EU Regulation 2080/92, EU Regulation 1257/99, forest resources, Greece, multifunctional agriculture, multinomial logistic regression, rural development, rural land, spatial analysis. In recent decades, land use patterns have undergone tremendous transformations of such a magnitude that have attracted considerable attention within the scientific community. At present, an international multidisciplinary debate is in progress among scientists, experts, policy makers, non-governmental organisations and various economic and institutional players with some interest at or involvement in land use allocation. In some respects, this is due to the fact that the magnitude and pace of land change have risen considerably, affecting almost all fundamental components of the system created from both natural and anthropogenic communities. The most affected uses of land seem to be agricultural and forest uses. Rural areas in the EU make up 80% of the territory and have approximately 25% of the population. These areas have undergone major adjustments resulting from agricultural policies and other driving forces such as policy decisions about tourism, transportation networks and forestry. Implications have been great and pressuring, especially those concerning forests and soil, ranging from biotic diversity threats, desertification and forest and open land 'squeeze' to increased vulnerability to human settlements as well as local water and food shortage. Therefore, there is a pressuring need for designing and applying integrated, sustainable and realistic forest policies tightly connected to the requirements for improving the local people's quality of life. The declining economic viability of rural areas not only in Greece but also in other Mediterranean countries has forced the decision makers to develop policies targeted at delivering support to the rural communities to invert the current situation. Multifunctional forestry is perceived as a means of rural development. It is also considered to be an important vehicle for diversifying the countryside through the restoration of existing woodlands and the establishment of new forests on suitable land including former agricultural land (1, 2). In this way, it is possible to strengthen the livelihood base and the quality of life in rural areas. Afforestation of marginal agricultural land through the EU Regulations 2080/92 and 1257/99 is a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) target focused on (a) decreasing agricultural goods production