Afforestation, employment and depopulation in the Snowdonia National Park

Abstract

The relationships between the provision of employment opportunities in agriculture and forestry and the process of depopulation in the Snowdonia National Park are examined. The analysis focuses, first, on the relationship between afforestation and depopulation over this century. No clear relationship is found and there is no indication that afforestation has caused depopulation. Demographic factors and the availability of household amenities are much more influential in accounting for changes in the rate of depopulation. Case-study regions were isolated for a second detailed analysis. Between 1931 and 1951 general decline in employment in agriculture and forestry did not offer a reasonable explanation for the total decline in population. Since 1951 a marked increase in labour productivity in both industries has led to reduced employment. This has been more substantial in forestry which has, at the same time, reduced labour costs by shifting tasks onto contractors. Labour intensities on similar quality land are remarkably similar for agriculture and forestry. It is suggested that afforestation arrived in Wales with the potential of becoming, in the long term, a more labour-intensive land use than the prevailing agriculture. However, planting was often carried out in areas where depopulation was already severe and, because of the hiatus in job provision between planting and first harvesting, forestry was unable to provide the immediate stable economic base to maintain population. In the future, neither agriculture nor forestry, alone, is likely to sustain isolated communities in the National Park. Forestry can only provide greater sustained job prospects in the longer term and agriculture can only hold its current labour intensity on better quality land.