Affective forecasts and the Valentine's Day shootings at NIU: People are resilient, but unaware of it

Abstract

People overestimate the extent to which emotion-producing life events affect subsequent affect. However, research has yet to conclusively demonstrate that this phenomenon occurs following significant trauma affecting entire communities, or whether it applies to predictions of discrete emotions. Exploring such issues, student reports of emotion states were collected both before and after the oncampus Valentine's Day, 2008 shootings at Northern Illinois University (NIU). A separate group of students not on campus when the shootings occurred provided emotion state reports and predictions of the emotions they would expect to experience 2 weeks after a shooting occurred. Examination of these data suggests that: (1) emotion states of NIU students reflected resilience, and (2) students made affective forecasting errors indicating that this resilience was unexpected. These data confirm results of prior affective forecasting studies, extending them to cases of traumatic experiences, and suggest that such studies can expand their focus to explore specific post-event emotions.