Affecting Factors and Forecasting Trends of American GDP

Abstract

The predictors of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been a heated topic of research in recent years. Researchers have used diverse methods or models to find the factors that may affect GDP to some extent. However, there remain some gaps in the application of multiple regression models in GDP analyses. This paper aims to predict the trend of U.S. GDP by analyzing the trends of four variables and applying multiple regression models of these variables. As is found in the research, unemployment rate, total primary energy consumption and labor productivity of nonfarm business and nonfinancial corporations have an impact on GDP and can be utilized to predict GDP. Petroleum, hydroelectric power, solar energy and wind energy can also be used to forecast GDP. The findings of this paper may be conducive to more thorough and sophisticated analyses of GDP, the principal metric that is used to assess the performance of a nation’s economy.