Affecting elements and regional variables based on the objective of carbon intensity reduction in China

Abstract

The international community is facing the challenge of climate change, and the rapid increase of energy consumption plays a central role in the increasing carbon dioxide emissions. With 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China, this article establishes an impact model of carbon intensity, identifies key influencing factors on carbon intensity, and quantifies the effect of primary energy consumption, coal share, economic growth and technological innovation on carbon intensity in Eastern, Central and Western China. Results show that 1% of the increase in primary energy consumption in these three areas is attributable to a 0.738%, 0.975% and 0.742% increase in carbon intensity; 1% of the decrease in coal share is attributable to a 0.346%, 0.604% and 0.508% decrease in carbon intensity; and 1% of the increase in productivity efficiency should induce a 0.926%, 1.042% and 0.851% decline in carbon intensity, respectively. The results suggest that it is critical to integrate means for energy conservation, technological and productivity efficiency innovation, and adjust energy structure measures to fully implement a carbon intensity reduction strategy for China in the future.