Aerospace structural reliability analysis method based on regular vine copula model with the asymmetric tail correlation

Abstract

Considering the asymmetric tail correlations between variables in reliability analysis, an effective aerospace structural reliability analysis method based on regular vine copula models is proposed. Firstly, a product of multiple pair-copula functions and marginal density functions based on regular vine copula models are used to construct the joint probability density function. Secondly, the asymmetric copula functions are introduced into the candidate construction sets of pair-copula functions for capturing asymmetric tail correlations between variables. Meanwhile, the akaike information criterion (AIC) is adopted to select the optimal pair-copula functions. Thirdly, taking the difference of multi-dimensional correlations into account, six different regular vine copula models are used to construct the multivariate joint probability density function. And the corresponding regular vine copula-first order reliability method (RVC-FORM) considering the asymmetric tail correlation is proposed. Finally, three numerical examples and an aerospace turbine blade example are investigated to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.