Aerosols in current and future Arctic climate

Abstract

Mechanisms of Arctic amplification and Arctic climate change are difficult to pinpoint, and current climate models do not represent the complex local processes and feedbacks at play, in particular for aerosol–climate interactions. This Perspective highlights the role of aerosols in contemporary Arctic climate change and stresses that the Arctic natural aerosol baseline is changing fast and its regional characteristics are very diverse. We argue that to improve understanding of present day and future Arctic, more detailed knowledge is needed on natural Arctic aerosol emissions, their evolution and transport, and the effects on cloud microphysics. In particular, observation and modelling work should focus on the sensitivity of aerosol–climate interactions to the rapidly evolving base state of the Arctic. Aerosol–climate interactions are important in the Arctic, but they exhibit large spatiotemporal variability. This Perspective argues for community-driven model and observational improvement, emphasizing the need to understand natural aerosol processes and quantify how their baseline is changing.