Aerosol climatology, variability, and trends over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in CMIP6 models

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatology, variability, and trends over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) considered for the period of space-borne MODIS satellite observations during 2003–2014. The multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of CMIP6 models, is considered when better correlations (≥0.5) of models against the MODIS-derived AOD observations using standard statistical skill metrics. Analysis suggests that the CMIP6 MME successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of AOD climatology and its seasonal variability, albeit with some discrepancies. In particular, CMIP6 MME underestimates AOD spatial distributions across the IGP region (∼ bais varies between 0.2 and 0.4 during different seasons). CMIP6 MME captures coarse-mode aerosol distribution similar to AERONET over the IGP, while it has limited skill in capturing the fine-mode aerosol distribution, which could be due to uncertainties pertinent to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Furthermore, the CMIP6 MME captures the seasonal evolution of aerosols over the IGP and its sub-regions (i.e., eastern and western IGP regions). Notably, the CMIP6 MME successfully captures the dominance among various aerosol species and their contributions to total AOD over the IGP. The CMIP6 MME mimic the observed AOD trends (varies between 0.01 and 0.03 year−1) well across the study regions, except the western IGP, where the MME is unable to replicate declining AOD trends during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons compared to MODIS. By conducting a principal component analysis on AOD data, it is apparent that the CMIP6 MME captures AOD variances that are comparable to MODIS observations, albeit with some discrepancies. This finding of the present research will help in policymaking, and mitigation strategies in the region.