AERMOD air dispersion modeling and health risks of gas and oil fueled heating plant emissions

Abstract

A significant part of the population in Serbia relies on central heating systems during the winter months, with around fifty heating plants in operation across the country. Common fuels used in these plants primarily include fossil fuels such as fuel oil and natural gas. Combustion of some of these fuels leads to significant emissions of air pollutants. This study evaluates the impact on the air quality of the two heating boilers at the Valjevo city (Serbia) heating plant. Air emissions were measured separately for two heating boilers in the facility using standard reference methodology. The AERMOD air dispersion model was used to estimate the dispersion of various pollutants. A combination of topographical and meteorological data was used to set up a receptor grid exposed to air pollution within a 10 km radius around the heating plant. It was found that the resulting distribution and concentration gradient of pollutant gases and particles were less inclined towards the city centre and instead spread eastwards into the surrounding villages. The health risk from the fuel oil boiler was shown to be significantly higher than that caused by the natural gas-fuelled boiler. Nevertheless, the calculated carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks were within acceptable limits. However, further research is required to adequately assess the cumulative health risk generated by other surrounding emitters.