Advocates or cartographers? Scientific advisors and the narratives of German energy transition

Abstract

Political debate on energy in Germany has been shaped by two historically opposed discourses, one pushing for a transition to renewables, the other holding on to the status quo. Scientific policy advice (SPA) has been involved in their evolution from the beginning. This paper draws on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and on discourse and narrative theory to study the role of SPA in recent German energy policy. We explore 1) whether scientific advisors have been members of advocacy coalitions, and 2) how their contributions may have interacted with the evolution of the discourses and major narratives. We perform a qualitative text analysis of 50 SPA reports published between 2000 and 2015.We find that the majority of studies clearly take sides in the debate, and that in most cases the reports’ positions are fully transparent. Despite the polarization, SPA provides differentiated information on key aspects of the discourses, and alternative design options for policy instruments. We conclude that SPA contributions have improved the conditions for political consensus and compromise. Collectively, SPA studies provide a basis for mapping different policy pathways and their consequences. In the future, SPA should address additional critical issues such as coal phase-out and international leadership.