Abstract
The influence diagram (ID) is introduced into advertising media selection and delivery strategy making by reducing uncertainty in the process of decision-making. This paper conducts a survey and selects relevant variables including product category, advertising budget, target audience, media selection, authority, and coverage. The topology layer of the ID model is constructed by distinguishing the causal relationship among variables, and the parameter layer is defined through the judgment of conditional probability. Empirical results show that scientific assessments of the various expected utility values in the decision-making program are put by probabilistic reasoning. Based on it, the larger profit can be obtained under a smaller cost with the principle of expected maximization. Therefore, the model does an effective job and provides reference for decision-makers.
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