Abstract
We study the dynamics of a ring of patches with vegetation–prey–predator populations, coupled through interactions of the Lotka–Volterra type. We find that the system yields aperiodic, recurrent and rare explosive bursts of predator density in a few isolated spatial patches from time to time. Further, the global predator biomass also exhibits sudden uncorrelated occurrences of large deviations from the mean as the coupled system evolves. The maximum value of the predator population in a patch, as well as the maximum value of the predator biomass, increases with coupling strength. These trends are further corroborated by fits to Generalized Extreme Value distributions, where the location and scale factor of the distribution increases markedly with coupling strength, indicating the crucial role of coupling interactions in the generation of extreme events. These results indicate how occurrences of extremely large predator populations can emerge in coupled population dynamics, and in a more general context they suggest a generic class of deterministic nonlinear systems that can naturally exhibit extreme events
Highlights
We study the dynamics of a ring of patches with vegetation–prey–predator populations, coupled through interactions of the Lotka–Volterra type
An extreme event can be considered as one where a state variable in an engineered or natural system exhibits large deviations from the average, i.e. the system is interrupted by sudden excursions to values that are significantly different from the mean value, with such deviations being aperiodic, recurrent and rare
We present a new scenario for the advent of extreme events in both space and time, in a system of populations coupled through generic Lotka–Volterra type interactions, suggesting a generic coupling class that can naturally yield extreme events in interactive deterministic nonlinear systems
Summary
We study the dynamics of a ring of patches with vegetation–prey–predator populations, coupled through interactions of the Lotka–Volterra type. These trends are further corroborated by fits to Generalized Extreme Value distributions, where the location and scale factor of the distribution increases markedly with coupling strength, indicating the crucial role of coupling interactions in the generation of extreme events These results indicate how occurrences of extremely large predator populations can emerge in coupled population dynamics, and in a more general context they suggest a generic class of deterministic nonlinear systems that can naturally exhibit extreme events. Due to their huge impact in phenomena that range from traffic jams to weather disturbances, the existence of extreme events has triggered much research interest[1]. We present a new scenario for the advent of extreme events in both space and time, in a system of populations coupled through generic Lotka–Volterra type interactions, suggesting a generic coupling class that can naturally yield extreme events in interactive deterministic nonlinear systems
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