Advancing Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature and Heat Wave Prediction Skill in China by Incorporating Scale Interaction in a Deep Learning Model

Abstract

AbstractAccurate subseasonal predictions of high surface air temperature (SAT) and heat wave events 10–30 days in advance are crucial for mitigating the risks of extreme weather; however, they pose a challenge for current operational models. In this study, we trained a convolutional neural network (CNN)‐based deep learning model to exploit the modulations in China's SAT by precursor signals across different timescales to improve predictions of future SAT and heat wave events. This CNN model demonstrated superior capability in capturing the evolution of SAT anomalies and the occurrence of heat wave events with forecast lead times beyond 20 days, compared with that of the operational models of the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Explainability analysis highlighted that subseasonal SAT predictability in China is driven primarily by large‐scale intraseasonal perturbations from both lower‐ and higher‐latitude regions of Eurasia and interannual variability.