Advancing real-time drilling trajectory prediction with an efficient nonlinear DDE model and online parameter estimation

Abstract

This study introduces a streamlined approach to predict planar drilling trajectory by employing an efficient nonlinear Delay Differential Equation (DDE) model with high computational speed and predictive accuracy. The efficient model is validated and compared with other models by utilizing not just data from existing literature but also two sets of experimental data with two distinct rigs. Following the validation, the model is integrated with an online estimation technique—calibrating one parameter in real-time using historical data—empowering it to forecast drill bit paths with remarkable fidelity. The validation of the model and its estimation strategy underscores their potential for application in real-time drilling control systems, setting a new benchmark for future advancements in the field.