Advancing groundwater vulnerability assessment in Bangladesh: a comprehensive machine learning approach

Abstract

In response to Bangladesh's severe water shortages, this research delves into the intricate dynamics of groundwater vulnerability. Integrating often-overlooked factors such as topography, meteorology, socio-economic conditions, and land use & geology, the study employs advanced Random Forest (RF) modeling. Rigorously analyzing 200 strategically chosen sample points, the research uncovers critical areas like Rajshahi, Nawabganj, Naogaon, and Dhaka, constituting 21% of the land, as highly vulnerable. In contrast, regions like Rangpur, Mymensingh, and Barisal, encompassing 31% of the area, exhibit lower vulnerability. Topographic factors, accounting for 45% of the vulnerability, including aspect, drainage density, and slope, significantly influence susceptibility. Socio-economic elements contribute 22%, particularly population density and industrial activities. The RF model achieves exceptional accuracy (over 90%), emphasizing the complexity of groundwater dynamics. By integrating geological, social, and economic aspects, the study provides actionable insights for nuanced and sustainable management strategies. This research not only unveils a highly accurate groundwater vulnerability map, enriching scientific understanding, but also offers a unique approach by incorporating often-overlooked variables and leveraging machine learning. These insights empower policymakers and urban planners to craft targeted and sustainable groundwater management strategies, ensuring a resilient water supply system for Bangladesh's growing population. Through this work, the aim is to significantly contribute to the scientific community while providing data-driven solutions for the nation's pressing water challenges.