Abstract
One of the main goals in pursuing sustainable development is to provide universal access to modern energy services, notably through the use of off-grid renewable energy technologies. To date, integrated assessment models (IAMs) poorly address energy access targets. In the context of research dedicated to energy scenarios and climate change mitigation in Africa, we attempt to advance the representation of energy access in one such IAM by using GIS data. In a case study for Ethiopia with the TIAM-ECN model, we demonstrate that by enriching an IAM with information derived from GIS databases, insights are obtained that better capture the dynamics of energy access developments, in comparison to conventional IAM analysis of energy technology deployment pathways. When duly accounting for the geographical spread in demography and technology costs in a developing country, we find that many people may gain access to electricity in remote areas thanks to the availability of affordable off-grid power production options that render expensive grid extensions unnecessary. This effect is not explicitly accounted for in most traditional IAMs. By the middle of the century, off-grid technologies could provide affordable electricity to 70% of the Ethiopian population, based almost entirely on renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower.
Highlights
While in the five North African countries, more than 99% of the population today has access to electricity, in Sub-Saharan Africa, this level is only about 37%
The novel approach presented in this paper aims at taking full advantage of insights from both GIS and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
TIAM-ECN is a well-established version of the global TIAM model developed under the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program of the International Energy Agency (IEAETSAP)
Summary
While in the five North African countries, more than 99% of the population today has access to electricity, in Sub-Saharan Africa, this level is only about 37% (up from 23% in 2000). Even while advancing access to modern energy services is recognised as one of the main aims of the SDGs, quantitative tools used by energy analysts to inspect how and with what kind of interventions or policies this goal can be furthered poorly reflect issues of energy access and the challenges involved therein Among these instruments are Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which allow for studying interactions between the economy, energy use, and our environment. The power sector is intended to remain at its current emission level of 5 MtCO2e, this sector is expected to grow substantially in order to satisfy increasing demand for, and expand access to, electricity This target sharply contrasts with an expected population growth from around 99 million people in 2015 to approximately 191 million inhabitants in 2050 [26].
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