Advancing effective energy transition: The effects and mechanisms of China's dual-pilot energy policies

Abstract

Quantifying energy transition (ET) and evaluating energy policies are crucial for global sustainable development. This study measures the energy transition index (ET−CCD) at the prefecture-level city level in China and evaluates the synergistic effects of the dual-pilot energy policy of New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) and Low Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) based on the energy trilemma (ETR) of coordinated development in terms of security (ES), justice (EJ) and sustainability (ESU). The results show that the overall ET−CCD is increasing, with the eastern and central regions leading, the western region growing significantly, and the northeast fluctuating upward, indicating regional disparities. Compared to single policies, the dual-pilot energy policies have a more significant promoting effect on energy transition, especially in eastern, western, non-central cities, resource-based cities, and cities with high carbon emission reduction potential. Mechanism analysis reveals that the dual-pilot energy policies significantly promote ES and EJ , but have a negative impact on ESU in the short-term. Improvements in ES, EJ and ESU all significantly promote energy transition, with ES serving as a complete mediator, while EJ and ESU serving as partial mediators. Additionally, the findings remain stable in robustness tests and provide data support for a flexible mix of policy instruments to facilitate energy transition.