Advancing aircraft engine RUL predictions: an interpretable integrated approach of feature engineering and aggregated feature importance

Abstract

In this study, we present a comprehensive approach for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of aircraft engines, incorporating advanced feature engineering, dimensionality reduction, feature selection techniques, and machine learning models. The process begins with a rolling time series window, followed by the extraction of a multitude of statistical features, and the application of principal component analysis for dimensionality reduction. We utilize a variety of feature selection methods, such as Genetic Algorithm, Recursive Feature Elimination, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Regression, and Feature Importances from a Random Forest model. As a significant contribution, we introduce the novel aggregated feature importances with cross-validation (AFICv) technique, which ranks features based on their mean importance. We establish a selection criterion that retains features with a cumulative mean sum equal to 70%, thereby reducing the complexity of machine learning models and enhancing their generalizability. Four machine learning regression models—Natural and Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Multi-Layer Perceptron—were employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the selected features. The performance of our proposed method is assessed by the evaluation metrics Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and R2 Score, and also considered within-interval percentages and relative accuracy metrics. Importantly, a novel PCA interpretability was introduced to provide real-world context and enhance the utility of our findings for domain experts. Our results indicate that the proposed AFICv technique efficiently achieves competitive performance across the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) sub-datasets using a significantly smaller subset of features, thus contributing to a more effective and interpretable RUL prediction methodology for aircraft engines.