Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that threatens over half of the world’s population. Despite being endemic to more than 100 countries, government-led efforts and tools for timely identification and tracking of new infections are still lacking in many affected areas. Multiple methodologies that leverage the use of Internet-based data sources have been proposed as a way to complement dengue surveillance efforts. Among these, dengue-related Google search trends have been shown to correlate with dengue activity. We extend a methodological framework, initially proposed and validated for flu surveillance, to produce near real-time estimates of dengue cases in five countries/states: Mexico, Brazil, Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan. Our result shows that our modeling framework can be used to improve the tracking of dengue activity in multiple locations around the world.
Highlights
Dengue fever poses a growing health and economic problem throughout the tropical and subtropical world
We show that a methodology, originally developed to track flu in the US, can be extended to improve dengue surveillance in multiple countries/states where dengue has been observed in the last several years
We extend a methodology recently introduced in the flu surveillance literature to combine dengue-related Google searches with dengue case count time-series to track dengue activity
Summary
Dengue fever poses a growing health and economic problem throughout the tropical and subtropical world. Dengue is today one of the fastest-growing and most important mosquitoborne viral diseases in the world, with an estimated 390 million infections each year and threatening an estimated 3.9 billion people in 128 countries [1]. Gov.tw/ch/SingleDisease.aspx?dc=1&dt= 4&disease=94061&position=1 As described in the manuscript, the input variables (Google search frequencies for each country) can be obtained from the website: www.google.com/trends InfectiousDiseasesStatistics/weekly_ infectiousdiseasesbulletin.html http://nidss.cdc. gov.tw/ch/SingleDisease.aspx?dc=1&dt= 4&disease=94061&position=1 As described in the manuscript, the input variables (Google search frequencies for each country) can be obtained from the website: www.google.com/trends
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