Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

Abstract

Abstract This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden–Julian oscillation and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision-makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.