Abstract
We employ a multi-method approach to more fully explore determinants of greater than expected rural county-level increases and decreases in the proportion of working poor in four states. An econometric model by Anderson, Goe, and Weng (2007) using 1990 and 2000 Census data in the North Central region of the U.S. supplies the error terms to identify our outlier counties. We show that counties performing better than expected may be more self-reliant than counties performing worse than expected (Michigan), that regional attributes contribute greatly to overall performance (Ohio), that the structure of local employment patterns also influences outcomes (Missouri), while devolution of federal government and long-term commuting patterns may also affect outcomes (South Dakota). Future efforts should attempt to replicate these research strategies and may serve to inform the direction of best practice in federal data collection efforts.
Highlights
Over the past 20 years, the field of econometrics has advanced considerably
(2007) model identified several rural Michigan counties as outliers. Most of these fall within Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (UP), so we focus our attention on that region
We have shown that much richer conclusions about the reasons for exceptional performance of regional economies can be drawn by utilizing other kinds of data to supplement regression analysis of federal census data
Summary
Over the past 20 years, the field of econometrics has advanced considerably. Personal computers and off-the-shelf software have made sophisticated tests readily available. The time has come to assess the benefits of expanding the types of information contained in national data sets to keep pace with advances in econometrics and theories of community and regional development. Another issue with the current state of econometric analysis is that our equations tend to explain developments in those areas that approach the average. We begin where a model of the North Central region of the United States developed by Anderson, Goe, and Weng (2007) ends
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