Advancements in field development planning through mathematical analysis for reserves estimation, casing design, accidental events and carbon dioxide storage

Abstract

The objective of this work is to introduce novel methodologies in specific parts of Field Development Plans (FDPs) by leveraging contemporary technological advancements, industry best practices, and accumulated knowledge. The proposed methodologies comprise volumetric analysis by conducting stochastic simulations within a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate the associated uncertainties and a piston-like CO2 storage scheme (based on the material balance approach) aiming to enhance natural gas production and at the same time store CO2, mitigating climate change. Optimization of drilling operations based on appropriate material selection from commercial casing tables and assignment of a failure probability of casing configuration are also included. Another proposed methodology involves spatial risk analysis simulating accidental events based on the points of interest (POIs) and the distance from the event. Finally, a stochastic analysis of project economics is conducted showing uncertainties of cashflows throughout the economic life of the project and assessing the outcomes using various probabilistic performance metrics. The integration of these methodologies offers a robust framework for enhancing the effectiveness of FDPs and their applications, aligning with the evolving demands and complexities of the oil and gas sector. Such methodologies, rooted in mathematical tools aiming to quantify uncertainty in various ways, can increase production, potentially reducing costs through carbon tax incentives and benefit the environment. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated at the Frigg field, a natural gas reservoir situated in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea. Given its historical development in the 1970s and 1980s, the Frigg field serves as a rich repository of data and information for comparative analysis and fine-tuning of the proposed methodologies. The present study bridges the gap between theoretical advancements and practical applications, promoting innovation and efficiency within the oil and gas field development processes.