Advanced Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Nha Trang Shorelines

Cheng Yin,Long D Nguyen,Son T Mai,Nguyen Xuan Tinh,Trung Q Duong,Le Thanh Binh,Van-Hau Nguyen,Anh Le,Hitoshi Tanaka,Duong Tran Anh,Van-Chien Nguyen,Nguyen Trung Viet

doi:10.1109/access.2021.3095339

Abstract

Nha Trang Coast is located in the South Central Vietnam and the coastal erosion has occurred rapidly in recent years. Hence it is crucial to accurately monitor the shoreline changes for better coastal management and reduction of risks for communities. In this paper, we explored a statistical forecasting model, Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and two Machine Learning (ML) models, Neural Network Auto-Regression (NNAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), to predict the shoreline variations from surveillance camera images. Compared to the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the most common method used for predicting shoreline changes from cameras, we demonstrate that the SARIMA, NNAR and LSTM models outperform the EOF model significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. The forecasting performance of the SARIMA model, NNAR model and LSTM model is comparable in both long and short-term predictions. The results suggest that these models are highly effective in detecting shoreline changes from video cameras under extreme weather conditions.

Highlights

Coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon driven by numerous complex physical processes of wave action, tidal regime and sediment transportation
We further demonstrate that the performance of Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Neural Network Auto-Regression (NNAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in long-term
We focus on the prediction of shoreline changes via different methods including SARIMA, NNAR and LSTM

Summary

Introduction

Coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon driven by numerous complex physical processes of wave action, tidal regime and sediment transportation. Understanding the physical processes and the intervention of human activities is crucial for efficient coastal management. Nha Trang Coastline suffers from accelerated erosion due to VOLUME xxxx, xxxx strong northeast monsoon with forceful winds and high waves. The landscape of the coast is damaged due to climate change and sea level rise, and the local economy is threatened by the decrease of the number of tourists and the high amount of reconstruction costs after coastal disasters. Several past studies worked on the erosion evolution of Nha Trang Coast, e.g. [2]–[4] Though these studies documented the insights of seasonal changes and

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