Abstract
Estimation of bid prices for hard rock TBM drives needs to incorporate the variability of project duration. The project duration depends mainly on the TBM advance rates, which are difficult to estimate. The advance rate may be estimated from the knowledge about the penetration rate and the TBM utilization in a given set ofgeologic conditions. This paper describes a method for probabilistic estimations of advance rates and evaluates their effects on project economics by cash flow analysis.
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