Advance Mosul Dam Break Analysis by Integrated Hydrologic Modeling and Gene-Expression Programming

Abstract

Mosul dam is one of the biggest water driven structures in Iraqi nation. It is situated on Tigris River, north of Iraq. It is the fourth biggest dam in the Middle East, 3.4 Km long, 113 m in stature and has a capacity limit of 11.1 billion cubic meters. It is an earth fill dam, built on bedrocks of Fatha Formation, which comprises of gypsum beds. In this manner, it is chosen as a contextual analysis to foresee flood fiascos brought about by a conceivable dam disappointment because of its establishment issues. In this examination, Simplified Dam Break (SMPDBK) model is added to watershed displaying framework (WMS) rendition 10 as a pressure driven model to mimic a theoretical Mosul dam break by utilizing Digital rise model (DEM), land use maps and satellite pictures as a mean information sources. WMS was utilized to investigate the DEM information to separate the River way centerline downstream the dam. Five situations; 330 m as most extreme activity level, 320, 310 and 300 m.a.s.l as least activity level in extra to 290 m.a.s.l were used to mimic the dam disappointment. The disastrous outcomes in the event of the dam break as per this examination at the most extreme activity level (330 m.a.s.l.), Mosul city will be immersed with the greatest water level of 228.72 m.a.s.l., the most extreme release of flood will be 229519 m3/sec, while the greatest water profundity will reach to 21 meter over the bed of normal Tigris River inside (5.43) hours from the beginning of the dam disappointment. The overwhelmed territory between the dam site and Mosul city was anticipated to be 237 km2. The immersion maps for the most perilous mimicked situation were organized by utilizing WMS to demonstrate the flood profundity and flood height maps along downstream of the considered dam. The SMPDBK model yields incorporate flood releases, time to top profundities, flood profundities and flood rises steered along stream centerline and the fundamental immersed territories in Mosul city were perceived. At long last, Gene Expression Programming (GEP) were utilized to break down the model yields to build up an emblematic relapse articulation to foresee flood releases, flood time and flood level conditions. The exhibition of the GEP prescient conditions were tried by the level of assurance coefficient R2. The aftereffects of R2 values for the three prescient conditions are demonstrated the effectiveness of GEP for this examination, since all R2 esteems is more noteworthy than 0.9 .