Adult Survival and Breeding Dispersal of Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) in a Declining Population

Abstract

Abstract. The population of Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, USA, has recently experienced poor productivity with complete or near-complete breeding failure at multiple colonies, and the number of breeding pairs has declined. Adult Common Terns were captured and banded at Pettit Island from 2010 through 2014 and at four additional islands from 2011 through 2014. Although the number of breeding pairs on Pettit Island decreased and reproductive success was generally poor, this colony was more productive than the other colonies. Data from the other colonies were too sparse to treat each site separately, and the analysis is instead based on two “locations”: Pettit Island and all other sites. Apparent survival and movement probabilities were estimated using multistate capture-recapture modeling based on recaptures combined with resighting of color-banded Common Terns. The two best supported models included location, transience, and presence or absence of color bands as variables and p...