Abstract
Adult mortality is an important development and public health issue that continues to attract the attention of demographers and public health researchers. Controversies exist about the accurate level of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), due to different data sources and errors in data collection. To address this shortcoming, methods have been developed to accurately estimate levels of adult mortality. Using three different methods (orphanhood, widowhood, and siblinghood) of indirect estimation and the direct siblinghood method of adult mortality, we examined the levels of adult mortality in 10 countries in SSA using 2001–2009 census and survey data. Results from the different methods vary. Estimates from the orphanhood data show that adult mortality rates for males are in decline in South Africa and West African countries, whilst there is an increase in adult mortality in the East African countries, for the period examined. The widowhood estimates were the lowest and reveal a marked increase in female adult mortality rates compared to male. A notable difference was observed in adult mortality estimates derived from the direct and indirect siblinghood methods. The method of estimation, therefore, matters in establishing the level of adult mortality in SSA.
Highlights
Adult mortality highlights the significance of demographic transition, especially in developing countries
Adult mortality estimates The adult mortality estimates derived from the orphanhood, widowhood, and siblinghood methods have been compared with external sources whose estimates are presented in Tables 5, 6, and 7 in the Appendix
The basis of comparison is that all the adult mortality estimates are translated to a common adult mortality index, which is the probability of dying between ages 15 and 60 years
Summary
Adult mortality highlights the significance of demographic transition, especially in developing countries. It is another indicator of the differences within and between developing and developed countries (Graham et al 1989; World Bank 2012). Empirical data on the levels of mortality experienced by adults in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region has supported this opinion, with the focus on maternal mortality (Obermeyer et al 2010b). The high mortality of adults in SSA is being recognised more widely, and a response has begun to emerge, with regard to the impact of the AIDS epidemic and high mortality due to tuberculosis, lower respiratory infections (LRI), and malaria (Bradshaw and Timaeus, 2006). There has been a substantial decline from a global average of 198 deaths per 1000 persons alive at age 15 and above between 1990 and 1995 to Odimegwu et al Genus (2018) 74:10
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