Adult Mortality Five Years after a Natural Disaster: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Tsunami

Abstract

Exposure to extreme events has been hypothesized to affect subsequent mortality because of mortality selection and scarring effects of the event itself. We examine survival at and in the five years after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami for a population-representative sample of residents of Aceh, Indonesia who were differentially exposed to the disaster. For this population, the dynamics of selection and scarring are a complex function of the degree of tsunami impact in the community, the nature of individual exposures, age at exposure, and gender. Among individuals from tsunami-affected communities we find evidence for positive mortality selection among older individuals, with stronger effects for males than for females, and no evidence of scarring. Among individuals from other communities, property loss is associated with elevated mortality risks in the five years after the disaster only for those who were age 50 or older at the time of the disaster.