Adoption of Renewable Energy Technologies: A Fuzzy System Dynamics Perspective

Abstract

Renewable energy technologies (RETs) are essential for low-carbon energy, environment, and economic systems. The adoption of RETs has been facing a number of barriers and constraints due to the dynamic interaction between potential technology adopters, adopters, imitators, inhibitors, and the technology policies in place. However, the major challenge in modeling RET adoption is the existence of linguistic or fuzzy variables which often confront the decision maker. Linguistic and time-dependent variables lead to uncertainties in the impact of decisions taken. In this connection, the aim of this chapter is to develop a fuzzy system dynamics approach to improve the usefulness of energy policy system models characterized with linguistic variables. Complex dynamic interactions between technology adopters, imitators, inhibitors, policy makers, and energy policies are captured based on systems thinking. Based on a set of input policy parameters and variables, the behavior of RET adoption is investigated. Sensitivity experiments and further “what-if” experiments are conducted in this study. Useful managerial insights are drawn from the simulation results, relevant for policy makers concerned with RETs. Fuzzy logic and system dynamics methodologies are integrated from a systems perspective to model typical RET scenarios. It is anticipated that the methodology will be vital for real-world energy policy design and assessment in the twenty-first century.