Abstract

To explore the adoption effect of improved neural network blade pattern in corona virus disease (COVID)-19, comparative analysis is implemented. First, the following hypotheses are proposed. I: in addition to the confirmed cases and deaths, people suspected of being infected are also involved in the spread of the epidemic. II: patients who have been cured may also develop secondary infections, so it is considered that there is still a link between cured cases and the spread of the epidemic. III: only the relevant data of the previous day is used to predict the epidemic prevention and control of the next day. Then, the epidemic data from February 1st to February 15th in X province were selected as the control. The combined neural network model is used for prevention and control prediction, and the prediction results of the traditional neural network model are compared. The results show that the predictions of the daily new cases by the five neural network models have little difference with the actual value, and the trend is basically consistent. However, there are still differences in some time nodes. The errors of neural network 1 on the 6th and network 3 on the 13th are large. The accuracy of the combined neural network prediction model is high, and there is little difference between the result and the actual value at each time node. The prediction of the cumulative number of diagnoses per day of the five neural network models is also analyzed, and the results are relatively ideal. In addition, the accuracy of the combined neural network prediction model is high, and the difference between the result and the actual value at each time node is relatively small. It is found that the standard deviations of neural networks 2 and 3 are relatively high through the comparison of the deviations. The deviation means of the five models were all relatively low, and the mean deviation and standard deviation of the combined neural network model are the lowest. It is found that the accuracy of prediction on the epidemic spread in this province is good by comparing the performance of each neural network model. Regarding various indicators, the prediction accuracy of the combined neural network model is higher than that of the other four models, and its performance is also the best. Finally, the MSE of the improved neural network model is lower compared with the traditional neural network model. Moreover, with the change of learning times, the change trend of MSE is constant (P < 0.05 for all). In short, the improved neural network blade model has better performance compared with that of the traditional neural network blade model. The prediction results of the epidemic situation are accurate, and the application effect is remarkable, so the proposed model is worthy of further promotion and application in the medical field.

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