Abstract
This study examines the adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of groundnut by smallholders in eastern Uganda. The primary focus of this work is the analysis of the sustainability of impacts from a regional farmer-led HYV dissemination and multiplication program. Data collected in 2014 is used to determine the lasting impact of the program conducted a decade prior, from 2001 to 2004. The structure of the data, which includes a treatment and 2-part control group, is critical to the identification of project impacts, measured as groundnut land allocation to groundnut HYVs (%). Fractional regression, propensity score matching and instrumental variable techniques are utilized to address potential bias from model specification, selection, and endogeneity. We find that, on average, participating households allocated 21% more of their land in groundnuts to HYVs relative to controls. Diffusion of program benefits through spillover is revealed by statistically significant differences in mean adoption between neighbor and non-neighbor controls, such that benefits are transferred from participants to their neighbors but not to the non-neighbor control group. We also find that, because of seed saving practices, the average yield for HYVs decreased over time to levels below those obtained from landrace varieties. Thus, the program effectively aided in information dissemination and technology transfer within rural communities. However, additional knowledge transfer is critical to the sustainability of food security outcomes among participant farmers.
Highlights
Groundnuts are a major crop in Uganda, ranking 11th in production and 6th for area harvested in 2013 and 2014 [1]
We find the results are consistent across specifications and indicate a positive and significant impact of Groundnut Seed multiplication and dissemination Program (GSP) on the adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) by the BEN and C_IN groups relative to the pure controls denoted by C_OUT
This work complements a number of recent studies of groundnut producers in Uganda by considering the sustainability of GSP outcomes regarding adoption of HYVs over a period of 10 years following the end of the intervention [3,5,7,8,62]
Summary
Groundnuts are a major crop in Uganda, ranking 11th in production and 6th for area harvested in 2013 and 2014 [1]. Within Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), agricultural production is dominated by smallholder HHs that make up around 80% of farms [16] This region faces significant persistent challenges from global climate change, e.g., drought and plant diseases [17,18]. Experts have found that productivity per agricultural worker in SSA has increased by a factor of 1.6 over the last 30 years compared to 2.5 in Asia over the same period [16] This difference is attributed to greater reliance on area expansion and lagged development of region-specific HYVs in SSA relative to Asia, where intensification has dominated [27]. Our study is motivated by the premise that projects to promote technology adoption and mitigation of risks associated with crop production are an effective means of support to smallholders and increase sustainability of local food systems. The remainder of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a brief review of the literature on HYV adoption and groundnut production in Uganda, as well as a description of the project; Section 3 introduces the data, along with the methodological framework that is applied to examine program impact; Section 4 presents our findings; and the Section 5 offers final insights based on our findings
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