Abstract
Based on detailed shipping figures for Suriname’s main harbour in Paramaribo, we estimate the total shipments (in kilograms) of original and falsified medical products for 1996–2008 across five product categories. Using various time series techniques and diffusion models, we document that total cumulative shipments of falsified products make about 40% of total shipments. We observe that there are apparently two distinct sets of consumers for original and for falsified products. Subsequently, we survey more than 300 citizens of Suriname from various demographics and ask questions about their potential adoption of falsified medicines. We find that income, age, and family size have no correlation, while the way people are insured does. Hence, the two sets of consumers can roughly be identified and clear-cut policy suggestions are presented. “The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that up to 1% of medicines available in the developed world is likely to be counterfeited. This figure rises to 10% globally, although in some developing countries they estimate one third of medicines are counterfeit” (Various internet sites consulted January 2010 and the best estimate we have).
Highlights
The diffusion of pharmaceutical products has received some attention in the recent literature; see for example [1]
In this paper we address the diffusion patterns of pharmaceutical products, where we relegate the focus on the actual shipments of such products in a low-income country
Of the 311 respondents who participated in this survey, 58% were females and 42% were males
Summary
The diffusion of pharmaceutical products has received some attention in the recent literature; see for example [1]. As pharmaceutical products may experience the impact of regulatory regimes, diffusion patterns may change direction and slope due to these regimes, see for example [3]. There is a strong focus on the diffusion patterns in western countries, usually driven by data availability, [2] include data for various low-income countries. In this paper we address the diffusion patterns of pharmaceutical products, where we relegate the focus on the actual shipments of such products in a low-income country. This change of focus naturally has to include the fact that in low-income countries often many pharmaceutical products are potentially falsified products. The exact available amount of these falsified drugs is unknown, and we will first provide a method to estimate the fraction of falsified products within a single low-income country
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