Abstract
Agricultural technology change is required in developing countries to increase the robustness to climate-related variability, feed a growing population, and create opportunities for market-oriented production. This study investigates technological change in the form of adoption of improved wheat, drought-tolerant teff, and cash crops in the semiarid Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. We analyze three rounds of panel data collected from smallholder farms in 2005/2006, 2009/2010, and 2014/2015 with a total sample of 1269 households. Double-hurdle models are used to assess how the likelihood (first hurdle) and intensity of technology adoption (second hurdle) are affected by demographic, weather, and market factors. The results indicate that few smallholders have adopted the new crops; those that have adopted the crops only plant small shares of their land with the new crops, and that there has been only a small increase in adoption over the 10-year period. Furthermore, we found that high population density is positively associated with the adoption of improved wheat, and previous period’s rainfall is positively associated with the adoption of drought-tolerant teff. The adoption of cash crops is positively associated with landholding size and access to irrigation. The policy implications of these results are that the government should increase the improved wheat diffusion efforts in less dense population areas, make sure that drought-tolerant teff seed is available and affordable after droughts, and promote irrigation infrastructure for production of cash crops.
Highlights
Adoption of improved agricultural technologies is an important means of adapting to climate change, improving agricultural productivity, and facilitate the transition from subsistence agriculture to market-oriented agriculture (Bezu et al 2014; De Janvry and Sadoulet 2002; Mendola 2007; Minten and Barrett 2005; Yu et al 2011; Zilberman et al 2012)
We investigate to what extent farmers in the semiarid Tigray region of Ethiopia have adopted improved wheat, droughttolerant teff, and cash crops and which factors explains the adoption and intensity of adoption
We observe that the adoption rate for the improved wheat increased from 12.9% in 2006 to 18.4% in 2010 and decreased to 13.8% in 2015, indicating an initial increase and stagnation and decline in adoption
Summary
Adoption of improved agricultural technologies is an important means of adapting to climate change, improving agricultural productivity, and facilitate the transition from subsistence agriculture to market-oriented agriculture (Bezu et al 2014; De Janvry and Sadoulet 2002; Mendola 2007; Minten and Barrett 2005; Yu et al 2011; Zilberman et al 2012). One of the few studies including a time dimension is Abera’s (2008), which used cross-section household data from 2001 with recall data back to 1997 and estimated factors affecting adoption of improved wheat in northern and west Shewa zones of Ethiopia. He analyzed how farmer and farm characteristics are correlated with adoption and intensity of adoption, but does not cover important supply-side constraints that need attention
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