Adopting and diffusing hydrogen technology in air transport: An evolutionary game theory approach

Abstract

This paper uses an evolutionary game theory approach to assess the diffusion of different hydrogen technologies in the air transport system. Our model is extended to consider uncertainty, as well as the impact of the “Flight Shame” movement and different policies such as subsidies or taxes. A sufficiently high initial percentage of hydrogen adopters is required for full adoption following the market social learning mechanism. This fixed internal point is determined by the benefits of switching technologies, the extra costs, and the ground handling fee. We complement our theoretical analysis with a well-calibrated simulation using industry data to study the diffusion of different hydrogen innovations. Without any government intervention, carbon neutrality at the 2050 Horizon is only feasible with the most disruptive technologies. Other intermediate technologies are not profitable enough to meet the Net Zero CO2 emissions goal.