Abstract
Knowing where crime is likely to happen can help prevent it. Here I investigate whether two basic mechanisms of human mobility—preferential return and spatial exploration—explain and predict where offenders commit future crimes. A sample of 843 adolescents reported their hourly whereabouts during four days. In line with findings from other sources and populations, their locations were concentrated and predictable. During the subsequent four years, 70 of the 843 were apprehended for committing one or more crimes. Compared to others, these 70 future offenders had visited slightly more different locations. However, their action radius and the predictability of their whereabouts had been very similar to those who would not become offenders. The offenders perpetrated most of their crimes around places they had visited before, including places where they previously offended. These findings show that the predictability of human mobility applies to offending and to offenders as well, and helps us understand and forecast where they will commit future crimes. They may prove particularly useful in criminal investigations, as they suggest that police should generally prioritize suspects who are familiar with the location of the crime and its environs, either because of their legal routine activities or because of their prior offences.
Highlights
The prevention of crime heavily depends on our ability to forecast where and when it will happen
Only the space-time budget data collected in the first wave is Adolescent offenders’ current whereabouts predict locations of their future crimes used, because this maximizes the time period over which offences could be observed that were perpetrated after the space-time budget interviews in which activity space was reported
In line with the findings from prior studies, but based on direct measures of individual activity spaces, I demonstrated that offenders tend to commit crimes in and around the places they have visited before when pursuing either their legal daily activities, and have a tendency to commit crimes in and around the locations of their previous crimes
Summary
The prevention of crime heavily depends on our ability to forecast where and when it will happen. The algorithms are based on well-corroborated evidence that crime risk is temporarily elevated within a few weeks and within a few hundred meters from a previous crime [3] This space-time pattern of crime (but not its spatial and temporal scale) is similar to the patterns that characterize the diffusion of infectious diseases and the propagation of earthquakes. It has first been demonstrated with methods originally developed in epidemiology [4, 5] and in seismology [6].
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
