Abstract
To assess the extent to which current selection criteria predict success in Sri Lanka's medical schools. The study sample consisted of all students selected to all six medical schools in two consecutive entry cohorts. The aggregate marks of these students at the General Certificate of Education (GCE) Advanced Level examination, the district of entry, admission category, candidate type (school/private) and gender, were identified as entry point variables. Success in medical school was measured in four ways: the ability to pass the first summative examination and the final examination at the first attempt, and obtaining honours in either examination. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression was used to assess the extent to which these entry point factors predict variability in outcome measures. Aggregate scores among the 1740 students in the study sample ranged from 212 to 356, with a median of 285. The male:female ratio was 1.4:1. Private candidates (taking the examination for the third time) accounted for 22% of students. Being a school candidate, female and having a higher aggregate score, were the only independent predictors of success for all four outcome measures. The aggregate score alone accounted for only 1-7% of the variation in performance in medical school. Marks obtained at the A Level examination (the only academic criterion currently used for selection of medical students in Sri Lanka) is a poor predictor of success in medical school.
Highlights
Finding the right policy for admission to medical school is a balancing act: the selection process needs to be fair to society, by choosing people with the potentialVol 51, No 1, March 2006Papers to be good doctors; it needs to be fair to applicants, who are often a diverse group unified only by their common desire to become doctors [1]
Marks obtained at the A Level examination is a poor predictor of success in medical school
Previous academic performance can be a good predictor of achievement in medical training [5], but a recent study in one medical school in Sri Lanka found that the aggregate score obtained at the General Certificate of Education (GCE) Advanced Level examination was a poor predictor of success, accounting for only 2–5% of the variance in performance in that school [6]
Summary
Finding the right policy for admission to medical school is a balancing act: the selection process needs to be fair to society, by choosing people with the potentialVol 51, No 1, March 2006Papers to be good doctors; it needs to be fair to applicants, who are often a diverse group unified only by their common desire to become doctors [1]. Finding the right policy for admission to medical school is a balancing act: the selection process needs to be fair to society, by choosing people with the potential. The policy for admission to medical schools in Sri Lanka has been primarily driven by the need to be fair to applicants because the admission process is fiercely competitive. Previous academic performance can be a good predictor of achievement in medical training [5], but a recent study in one medical school in Sri Lanka found that the aggregate score obtained at the GCE Advanced Level examination (the sole measure of academic performance used for selection of medical students) was a poor predictor of success, accounting for only 2–5% of the variance in performance in that school [6]. The present study was done to examine the predictive value of the A Level examination results (aggregate score and examination attempt) across the complete range of students admitted to Sri Lankan medical school
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