Abstract
The survival advantage of postoperative chemotherapy for high-risk stage II colon cancer (CC) patients remains unclear. The purpose was to evaluate the survival of high-risk stage II CC cases treated with chemotherapy and to construct survival prediction models to predict the survival benefit from chemotherapy. The study is a retrospective observational cohort study. Data on patients with stage II CC diagnosed from 2005 to 2019 who underwent radical surgery were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to obtain two cohorts, chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy. A chi-square analysis was used to assess the differences before and after PSM in the above two groups. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression were applied to investigate the 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer cause-specific survival (CSS). The predictive power of the constructed models was assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Of the 37,050 cases, 14,744 (39.8%) stage II CC were at high-risk and 29.2% of them received chemotherapy. Age, T stage, marital status, histologic grade, gender, and site independently influenced the reception of chemotherapy. The survival advantage of chemotherapy in the high-risk patients remained positive before and after PSM. The estimated 3, 5, and 10 years OS rates of chemotherapy group were 9.3, 10.7, and 15.6% higher than the nonchemotherapy group, respectively. Four nomograms predicting OS and CSS were established, with great discrimination (C-index between 0.627 and 0.691) and excellent calibration. Postoperative chemotherapy is beneficial for high-risk stage II CC patients, including the elderly patients (over 65 years of age). Our study developed nomograms to quantify the survival benefit of chemotherapy among high-risk stage II CC patients to develop personalized treatment recommendations and guide management decisions.
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