Adjustment of the moments of the project completion times when activity times are exponentially distributed

Abstract

The problem of determining the moment of the project completion time (MPCT) with stochastic activity durations is addressed. In the direct approach the MPCT is obtained after analyzing all possible network paths which is NP-hard problem. A recursive method for determining MPCT by proceeding iteratively over the nodes is the computationally least demanding and therefore the most efficient approach. Unfortunately, the moment methods which are available in literature ignore some aspects. In this paper, an adjustment of the moment completion time is discussed. Two illustrative examples are presented.