Abstract
The largest opportunity for the growth of adjustable speed drives (ASDs) during the next 5-6 years is in pump, fan and compressor (PFC) applications where a constant, fixed speed operation is converted to adjustable speed in order to realize energy savings. Inverter supplied induction motors are and will continue to be predominately used in these applications. Over the long term (10-15 years), the greatest ASD growth is expected in large volume consumer applications: first in hybrid electric vehicles (EVs) and in residential heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC). Both induction and a variety of AC Permanent Magnet motors are expected to be the dominant technology in this new field. The traditional ASD applications in industries which require adjustable speed (such as machine tools, robotics, steel rolling, extruders, paper mill finishing lines, etc.) offer a relatively limited potential for above average ASD growth since most of these applications have already converted to electronic speed control. As a result, ASD growth in this sector will essentially track the growth of the corresponding industries. If realized, both short and long term ASD growth opportunities will result in significant advancements of ASD technology, which will then substantially affect all other, more fragmented, ASD applications. Inmore » fact, any single large volume ASD application will serve as a catalyst for improving ASD characteristics in all other ASD applications with the same voltage rating. ASD cost and reliability (defined in the context of application compatibility) are the two most important factors which will determine whether the ASD growth opportunities are realized. Conversely, any technological improvement which carries a cost increase will be restricted to niche applications, at best. Consequently, future R & D efforts should be directed to secure reduction in ASD cost and improvement in ASD reliability. A specific action plan is outlined in this report.« less
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