Abstract

There is a consensus, in both academia and economic policy circles, that the reform of the personal income tax system in Serbia is necessary one. Two frequently discussed reform scenarios are East European style flat tax and the comprehensive income tax model of Western Europe. Most Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have recently reformed their income tax systems by introducing some form of flat tax scheme, while in numerous countries of Western Europe the possibility of flat tax reform is also seriously considered. Opponents of the reform usually stress the adverse distributional effects of flat tax schemes. The aim of our paper is to contribute to the empirical literature on the distributional effects of alternative tax reform scenarios. The analysis is based on the tax and benefit micro-simulation model for Serbia (SRMOD). The results suggest that redesigning the existing income tax system so as to introduce a uniform tax rate and increase the basic allowance would somewhat reduce inequality and improve vertical inequity in taxation. On the other hand, in the case of the introduction of comprehensive income tax, considerably larger equalizing and progressivity effects would be achieved. At the same time, since in both cases redistribution will not affect the bottom decile group, no significant effects (in either cases) on poverty reduction will be achieved.

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