Addressing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Jun Yin,Denghua Yan,Yongqiang Wang,Zhe Yuan,Zhiyong Yang

doi:10.3390/w10070910

Abstract

Projecting future changes of streamflow in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is important for the planning and management of the west route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP). This paper presented an analysis of the implications of CMIP5 climate models on the future streamflow in the JRB, using SWAT model. Results show that: (1) In the JRB, a 10% precipitation decrease might result in a streamflow increase of 15 to 18% and a 1 °C increase in temperature might results in a 2 to 5% decrease in streamflow; (2) GFDL-ESM2M and NORESM1-M showed considerable skill in representing the observed precipitation and temperature, which can be chosen to analyze the changes in streamflow in the future; (3) The precipitation and temperature were projected to increase by 0.8 to 5.0% and 1.31 to 1.87 °C. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 4.1 to 14.3% in the upper JRB. It was excepted to change by −4.6 to 8.1% in the middle and lower JRB (MLJRB). The changes of low streamflow in the MLJRB were −5.8 to 7.4%. Therefore, the potential impact of climate on streamflow will have little effect on the planning and management of the west route of SNWTP.

Highlights

Global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C in the 20th century and this trend has been even more obvious over the past 30 years [1]
The calibration and verification accuracy of the SWAT was acceptable for monthly streamflow simulation in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB)
Observed monthly streamflow at four stations in the JRB was used for calibration and validation of the SWAT model

Summary

Introduction

Global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦ C in the 20th century and this trend has been even more obvious over the past 30 years [1]. The atmospheric moisture content will be higher than before, which will further affect the earth's hydrological cycle [2,3]. Streamflow is an important factor in environmental, agricultural and economical applications [4]. Investigating changes about streamflow under future climate conditions is important to the discussion of climate change effects. Predicting the impacts of climate change on streamflow is mainly based on hydrological modeling driven by outputs from general circulation models (GCMs).

Methods

Results

Conclusion