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Abstract
During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.
Highlights
Is much less than over the mid-latitudes
We demonstrate the advantages offered by the ARCROSE data for skilful forecasting of strong winds along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), using an ensemble data assimilation’ (DA) system[24] and ensemble forecasting experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model[25,26,27]
A control reanalysis (CTL) assimilated routine global observations (NCEP PREPBUFR), which included all the ARCROSE data, while the other reanalyses were observing system experiments (OSEs) that excluded some of the ARCROSE data
Summary
Is much less than over the mid-latitudes. This smaller number of stations and the lower frequency of their observations must be addressed to compensate the lack of data. The ARCROSE period ran from 11–24 September 2013, which increased considerably the number of radiosondes launched daily (i.e., a total of 22 launches per day, compared with the usual 5) (Fig. 1c) These data were sent to the global telecommunication system (GTS) in real time and used for weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalysis datasets, with the intention that the uncertainty in the modelled atmospheric fields could be reduced by their inclusion. 168.25° W), recorded a mean wind speed from 19–21 September of approximately 11.7 m s−1, which caused significant upper-ocean mixing[22,23] During this period, the NSR over the East Siberian Sea was partially closed by sea-ice advection and/or sea-ice formation (Fig. 1a, S1)
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