Adaptive SPP–CNN–LSTM–ATT wind farm cluster short-term power prediction model based on transitional weather classification

Abstract

With the expansion of the scale of wind power integration, the safe operation of the grid is challenged. At present, the research mainly focuses on the prediction of a single wind farm, lacking coordinated control of the cluster, and there is a large prediction error in transitional weather. In view of the above problems, this study proposes an adaptive wind farm cluster prediction model based on transitional weather classification, aiming to improve the prediction accuracy of the cluster under transitional weather conditions. First, the reference wind farm is selected, and then the improved snake algorithm is used to optimize the extreme gradient boosting tree (CBAMSO-XGB) to divide the transitional weather, and the sensitive meteorological factors under typical transitional weather conditions are optimized. A convolutional neural network (CNN) with a multi-layer spatial pyramid pooling (SPP) structure is utilized to extract variable dimensional features. Finally, the attention (ATT) mechanism is used to redistribute the weight of the long and short term memory (LSTM) network output to obtain the predicted value, and the cluster wind power prediction value is obtained by upscaling it. The results show that the classification accuracy of the CBAMSO-XGB algorithm in the transitional weather of the two test periods is 99.5833% and 95.4167%, respectively, which is higher than the snake optimization (SO) before the improvement and the other two algorithms; compared to the CNN–LSTM model, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the adaptive prediction model is decreased by approximately 42.49%–72.91% under various transitional weather conditions. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the cluster is lower than that of each reference wind farm and the prediction method without upscaling. The results show that the method proposed in this paper effectively improves the prediction accuracy of wind farm clusters during transitional weather.